Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 11.478453 13.147573 14.945906 17.023968 19.355422 21.886706 24.839177
2025-06-29 8.896941 11.129763 13.723423 16.944537 20.822137 25.323292 30.926454
2025-07-06 7.173405 9.515438 12.374284 16.094984 20.780602 26.454309 33.809540
2025-07-13 6.392805 8.922174 12.144448 16.508940 22.218367 29.379861 38.980789
2025-07-20 5.761262 8.407224 11.905908 16.811044 23.440034 32.007519 43.822840
2025-07-27 5.122105 7.795822 11.457034 16.757602 24.139762 33.946145 47.823074
2025-08-03 4.543966 7.196852 10.951107 16.551947 24.572915 35.500573 51.333287
2025-08-10 4.115994 6.765227 10.630402 16.558103 25.266236 37.405379 55.371925
2025-08-17 3.788685 6.447361 10.438218 16.717226 26.160390 39.603517 59.889726
2025-08-24 3.455294 6.083776 10.140408 16.683273 26.748422 41.368554 63.843330
2025-08-31 3.137353 5.711667 9.793911 16.538609 27.143267 42.847844 67.420830
2025-09-07 2.912045 5.469405 9.628252 16.654158 27.924822 44.913470 71.927611
2025-09-14 2.771364 5.363440 9.681594 17.132761 29.314788 47.985711 78.127560
2025-09-21 2.519697 5.038752 9.346883 16.953222 29.646028 49.450606 81.943692
2025-09-28 2.188245 4.534850 8.663909 16.136520 28.882650 49.153126 82.986598
2025-10-05 2.087427 4.449239 8.698893 16.539526 30.143019 52.098008 89.230782
2025-10-12 1.980310 4.340512 8.682206 16.846357 31.249710 54.832658 95.235811
2025-10-19 1.831311 4.134565 8.471556 16.791340 31.727897 56.553380 99.657881
2025-10-26 1.676440 3.900936 8.190099 16.585826 31.925860 57.807854 103.350817
2025-11-02 1.561904 3.739042 8.031075 16.591815 32.490262 59.689275 108.141815
2025-11-09 1.474723 3.626430 7.957988 16.751290 33.332148 62.067552 113.844704
2025-11-16 1.373211 3.472327 7.790470 16.717253 33.814765 63.839583 118.573294
2025-11-23 1.268793 3.300931 7.574273 16.572334 34.079712 65.234782 122.694374